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STOCHASTIC ALM
Now Lynchval is enhancing ALM by implementing stochastic projections. The term stochastic refers to projecting asset performance under a large number of interest rate and equity return scenarios. Each scenario represents a random selection of future returns. But random does not mean purely random. Each scenario is an intrinsic whole, where for example, we allow for the fact that high shortterm interest rates have historically correlated with poor equity market returns. As another example, we allow for the fact that the yield curve has completely inverted only about 1% of the time over the last 50 years. A great many such consistencies are built into the projection software, so that when a user runs 1000 scenarios, the result is a highly scientific view of likely results. Output can be analyzed in terms ofbest case, worst case and standard deviations from the mean or by percentiles.The stochastic enhancement answers the following type of question from a plan sponsor: If I follow this funding policy and investment strategy, what are the chances that plan assets will be sufficient to meet plan liabilities over the next 30 years?Both the traditional valuation software and the ALM enhancement were motivated by a desire to help the pension plan community. The same is true of the more recent stochastic development. At Lynchval we are always striving to empower our clients. |
| LVxact expert actuarial solutions suite |
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PRODUCTS
LVval for pension valuation LVmed for OPEB valuation LValm for asset liability modeling LVadmin for defined benefit administration |
LVa4 for 401(a)(4) cross testing LVpacs for pensions accounting and control LVobj for administrator / participant interface LVdc for defined contribution |
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CONSULTING SERVICES
Service Bureau Technology Consulting Web Hosting |
OPEB–FAS / GASB Pension Actuarial Plan Conversion |